Even through failure progress can be achieved, as the North Koreans succeeded even though their missile, launched in April 2009, failed to break through Earth’s atmosphere. The missile transitioned to the second-stage of a three-stage rocket, which was a great improvement over the 2006 launch, which failed to get pass the first-stage. The rocket traveled some 3,000 km before it failed and landed harmlessly in the ocean.

“It was not as successful as it could have been,” said Dr. Bruce Bechtol, a professor of International Relations at US Marine Corps Command and Staff College, who continued to say that it was “certainly not as successful as the North Koreans wanted it to be, but it was far more successful than the 2006 launch.”

Many theories have been given as to why North Korea decided to launch their Taepodong-2 missile at this time. Some of the most popular explanations include,
include, the testing the Obama administration and its willingness to take a hardline stance against such brash actions or an attempt to legitimize the rule of the sickly Kim Jong-Il. Yet, according to Bechtol, all of these reasons are ancillary to the fact that the North Koreans launched the missile “because it was ready.”

However, North Korea poses a larger threat to an area far removed from Northeast Asia–the Middle East. North Korea has sold a reported $1.5 billion worth of ballistic missiles, according to the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis 2009 report, making them the largest seller of these weapons in the world.

Bechtol identified a troubling trend–the alliance between the Iranians and North Koreans. “There were Iranian engineers, technicians and dignitaries present at this launch, as there were at the launches in 2006, 1998 and 1993,” said Bechtol.  Thus, a link between the Iranians and North Koreans is not merely plausible, but probable.

Concluding his statement, Bechtol gave his personal prediction for the future of North Korean missile tests. Bechtol believes that “the North Koreans will conduct another long-range missile test in the future no matter what the geopolitical context is in Northeast Asia.”

Gen. Cartwright repeated the Defense Department’s previous statement that the shot from the USS Lake Erie was a direct hit, though he said there is no “smoking gun” as to whether the fuel tank had been hit. The video of the impact showed some indications, he said, that the tank was breached such as a fireball and a vapor cloud. But Cartwright said that they are still compiling all the radar evidence and at at this time the military is about 90 percent sure that the tank was breached.

(more…)

Gen. Cartwright describes the size and nature of debris created when a broken spy satellite was hit by a tactical missile shot from a Navy ship on Wednesday. (0:14)

 

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Gen. Cartwright explains the next steps in the military’s analysis of debris created by a direct hit on a broken reconnaissance satellite by a missile fired on Wednesday. (0:44)

 

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Gen. James Cartwright speaks about the evidence the military has the the fuel tank of a defunct spy satellite has been destroyed by a missile launched at this on Wednesday. (0:47)

 

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Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell spoke to the press corps this afternoon in anticipation of the military’s window of opportunity to shoot down a defunct spy satellite that has malfunctioned and carries with it a threat of unspent rocket fuel as it falls back to earth. The window officially opens within minutes of the space shuttle Atlantis’ return to earth just after 9 a.m. on Wednesday. Morrell said that the press would be notified within an hour of the event taking place, though it could take up to a day to determine if the target of the satellite’s fuel tank has been successfully hit.

Morrell said that this operation first became an issue for the Pentagon in January. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will be embarking on a trip around the world, beginning the first stage in Hawaii Wednesday evening. Morrell said that Gates has been empowered by the president to make the call on taking the shot at the failed satellite. That order will continue down the chain of command to General Chilton of Strategic Command and out to the USS Lake Erie where the missile will be fired. Morrell repeated that this is not in any way a test of the U.S. missile defense system, which he says has already been proven through missile testing.

The Navy also briefed the Pentagon press corps on the specifics of the Standard 3 Missile that will be used to shoot the defunct spy satellite. It is essentially a four-stage missile with three rocked stages that propel the missile of the edge of earth’s atmosphere and a fourth, called a kinetic kill vehicle which uses communications with a weapons system and infrared to hone in on the target, in this case the defunct reconnaissance satellite.

One official familiar with missile tests said that this is not business as usual. Navy officials said that this event is this significant in terms of the technical requirements, specifically that this target is going faster than previously tested engagements and the target is a “cold” target, though it is expected to pass the heat threshold needed to be seen by the infrared of the kinetic kill vehicle. The target’s temperature, increased by the sun, is being taken into consideration, meaning that the shot will most likely be taken at a time when it is day in the Pacific region west of Hawaii. The Navy officials said that in previous missile tests the time of flight can be anywhere between 80 and 25 seconds.

The missile travels at six times the speed of sound and the approximate distance it will go in terms of altitude is 110- 120 nautical miles. The Navy has changed the directional and location software on three of these Standard three surface-to-air missiles over the last six weeks to complete this mission. The missiles not used will be sent back and reverted to their original purpose of missile defense. The closing velocity of the two objects, missile and satellite, is somewhere just over 10 kilometers a second (or about six miles a second) Navy officials said it would be obvious whether or not the principal target, the fuel tank, has been hit. The three ships taking place in the operation will be the USS Lake Erie, the USS Decatur, and the USS Russell all of which are stationed in Pacific Command. The cost has been estimated by Pentagon officials between $30 and $60 million.

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell explains the window of opportunity to for shooting down a defunct U.S. spy satellite and gives a rough idea of how events surrounding the shoot down will proceed. (1:10)

 

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Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell emphasizes that the military’s plans to shoot down a defunct spy satellite are not designed to test U.S. missile defense system, but confront the threat posed by the satellite leaving orbit. (0:54)

 

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Gen. Ham speaks about the risks that prompted the U.S. decision to attempt to engage a broken reconnaissance satellite with a tactical missile. (1:03)

 

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General Carter Ham, of the Joint Staff, explains the primary objectives of a U.S. military mission to shoot down a reconnaissance satellite with a tactical missile. (0:50)

 

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