Christina Romer, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, speaks about the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. “In the past few months, some have tried to portray fiscal stimulus as an exotic tool with a questionable pedigree,” says Romer. “To use a medical analogy, fiscal stimulus is a well-tested antibiotic, not some new-fangled gene therapy.”
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Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, recommended an aggressive fiscal stimulus package priced anywhere between $300 billion and $400 billion, and warned that it should be passed soon (0:29).
In anticipation of the 2008 Annual Boards of Governors Meetings, popularly known as the ‘G-7’, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said “the economic crisis we’re in is very serious, but we can solve our problems if we act swiftly and coordinately.” Both the IMF director and World Bank President Robert Zoellick agree that this is a global crisis, and ‘no country is immune’. The leaders claim confidence and cuts in interest rates are the swiftest solutions to the crisis. Confidence is the first tool to be used in response to the economy, and Strauss-Kahn said “if you have the scope for fiscal stimulus, use it.”
The IMF predicts the global economy will have a slow recovery, but will come back starting in the second half of 2009. In order to initiate this growth, the IMF advises action to rejuvenate economic growth. This is why the IMF activated a ‘high access financial program’ yesterday, which will allow the management board to give fast and easily accessible up front payments, while also defining a long-term macroeconomic plan.
The IMF forecasts that the growth rate of developing countries will decline from 6.6% next year to around 4%. They say this is still an acceptable rate of growth, but the deceleration would be so sharp as to feel like a recession. Zoellick said “with the rising economic powers, the G7 countries can work through this crisis by dealing with bad assets, recapitalizing banks, and providing much needed liquidity.” Strauss-Kahn said that, “you can’t say a crisis affects all parts of the world and then develop economic policies that don’t consider the global economy”.
