Iranian Election Outcome Still Uncertain

By Courtney Costello-Talk Radio News Service

With the tenth Iranian Presidential election less than two weeks away, conversation is heating up as to whether sitting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will win a second term.

“No incumbent has ever lost a re-election campaign, but Ahmadinejad is indeed in real trouble.”, said Robin Wright, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Ahmadinejad’s opponents in the presidential race include: former Iranian Prime Minister, Mir-Hossein Mousavi; former Speaker of the Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi and former Revolutionary Guard, Mohsen Rezaii.

According to recent polls Mousavi has the most support with a three to four percent lead in ten major Iranian cities, where seventy percent of Iran’s population lives.

Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Carnegie Endownment for International Peace said, “These elections in Iran are unfree, they’re unfair, [and] they’re unpredictable.”

Women are expected to have a large impact in the coming election, possibly due to a strong presence of Iranian women’s rights activism.

“Women voters are increasingly voting independently. Women were a major factor in the election of Khatami and supporting the reformists,” Wright said.

On predictions for the forthcoming election, Sadjadpour said: “Judging by the last 30 years it usually takes 2 presidential terms for Iran to correct itself…So things may have to get worse before they get better.”