NIA report says that global warming may threaten national security

The House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming and Permanent Committee on Intelligence held a hearing to discuss the results of a National Intelligence report that gauged the potential risks global warming and climate change may have on national security from now until 2030.

The report, “National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030”, found both positives and negatives with the outcome of global warming. Dr. Thomas Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis, said that in North America, net cereal crop yields will increase by 5 to 20 percent between now and 2030. Also, the growing season in the U.S. and Canada has extended an average of two days per decade since 1950.

However, the report also found that the global mean annual average temperature has risen 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade during the period 1955 to 2005, which doubles the rate observed from 1906 to 2005. Since 1993, the global sea level has risen 3 mm per year, but for most of the 20th century, it rose only 1.7 mm per year.

Chairman Edward J. Markey asked Dr. Fingar if global warming will multiply existing international problems like “social tension, environmental degradation, and weak political institutions” that seem to be underlying causes of terrorism. Dr. Fingar said that the “laundry list” of problems listed by Chairman Markey resembles the list of “conditions and preconditions” that may lead to alienation and terrorism recruitment.

Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.) asked Dr. Fingar what level of confidence he applied to the report. Dr. Fingar said his level of confidence is “low to moderate.”

“There was uncertainty about the climate change projections that we took as the baselines. There was uncertainty about the impact on the individual countries,” Dr. Fingar said. This “cascade of uncertainties” reduced the confidence level.

The report is different than a National Intelligence Estimate because Dr. Fingar and his colleagues depended on open sources and outside expertise. Currently, a portion of the report is classified, but Rep. Pete Hoekstra (D-Mich.) requested that the full report be made public.