Ahmadinejad is an “existential” threat, but only to Iran

Two experts on Iranian foreign policy discussed their respective theories on
Iran’s electoral trends and security policies. Professor Ali Ansari, director of the
Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews, claimed that as
Iran’s domestic situation worsens, President Ahmadinejad tends to focus on
international issues, which will only hurt Iran.

But Ansari stressed that Iran cannot be ignored. Iran sits on top of a rich oil
reserve. In terms of regional security, Professor Ansari foresees the reinvention
of the Northern Tier (Iran, Turkey, and India) as a possibility. However, he does
not see a U.S.-Iran conflict any time soon. There may be a few hairline conflicts,
but not a deliberate attack.

According to Suzanna Maloney, senior fellow of the Saban Center for Middle East
Policy at the Brookings Institution, the 2009 parliamentary elections will be the
most important elections in Iranian history. Maloney also spoke positively about
the upcoming presidential election in the U.S., which will provide a new
perspective on Iran foreign policy in the post 9/11 era.

President Ahmadinejad and other leaders are convinced that the U.S. is on a
decline, Ansari said. Maloney said that Akbar Rafsanjani, former president of
Iran, is one of the only leaders opening doors to the U.S. Although Rafsanjani
and Ahmadinejad are extremely hostile in a political sense, they are tactically
cooperative.

Ansari noted that Democratization is slowing down. This is because many of the
government officials in Iran are political figureheads, not strategic
professionals. Before 2004, there was a “rebirth of professionalism” beginning
to develop, but, lately, the trend has been more revolutionary.