New polls gage likely outcome of Election 2008

George Washington University held a conference call to release the findings of a new Battleground Poll that tested national attitudes on race, the economy, and the Iraq War in relation to the candidates involved in the 2008 presidential election.

Brian Nienaber, vice president of the Republican polling firm the Tarrance Group, said that with three out of four voters disapproving of the direction the country is headed, “you’d certainly be well-positioned to think that the Republican Party and its presidential nominee would be in a nearly hopeless position, even at this early stage in the electoral process.” He went on to enumerate what he believed to be presumed presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) strengths on issues like Iraq and national security, saying that he has his own “brand of change” to sell that will distance him from anti-incumbent sentiment without “repudiating” the Republican Party. Citing statistics from the poll analysis that support this, Nienaber said that 40 percent of Americans still believe the U.S. should maintain a presence in Iraq until military officials say it is safe to leave. He said that 56 percent of voters still like President Bush as a person, even if they do not approve of his Administration. Nienaber also cited the Democratic Party’s weaknesses, saying that 1 in 5 supporters of each major nominee did not plan to vote for the other if their candidate was not elected. Nienaber said that “as bad as things are right now,” the Republican Party can still look forward to “successes” in November.

Celinda Lake, president of the Democratic polling firm Lake Research Partners, said “there’s no question that there are enormous challenges to the Republican brand,” but that McCain is a “formidable candidate” that Democrats should not underestimate. However, she said that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is “overwhelmingly” winning over independent voters compared to McCain. Lake said that 87 percent of Democratic voters say that the Iraq war was not worth the cost, while 75 percent of Republicans still think it was. Lake also said that Republicans in Congress have even lower approval ratings than Bush, emphasizing the strength of voters motivated by a desire for a change of the party in power. While she said that the general presidential election “bodes well for the Obama ticket,” Lake maintained that “it’s not over until the fall.” She also said she thinks Obama can “bring home” Hillary supporters to the Democratic Party if he is the nominee.